China to add most to global GDP by 2013; India 6th
May 30, 2011

The Chinese economy, like the porridge in Goldilocks is either too hot or too cold, never just right.

Economy and financial soothsayers do predict a rough season for China, as inflation booms, electricity fizzes out of control, trade tensions tantalize and the domestic property market threatens to bust. The Economist however, on the basis of numbers crunched by the IMF expects China to contribute the maximum to global GDP by September 2013. According to the Economist, World GDP over the past 12 months has produced about US$65-trillion worth of goods and services. Over the 12 months to September 2013, it will produce roughly US$75 trillion-worth. The chart alongside shows where that extra $10 trillion will be produced – China’s economy although smaller than that of America’s will add US$1.65 trillion or 28 percent of 2010 GDP, while the Indian economy will add slightly less than US$0.4 trillion or 25 percent of 2010 GDP.

The current apparent slowdown in the Chinese economy calculated on the back of a falling industrial profit and lower consumer spending, isn’t expected to last long. Manufacturing in the factory of the world is expected to rise following the peak of summer. Additionally, China’s constant climb up the value chain also adds to its increased contribution to global GDP. Spending on infrastructure is expected to rise in both emerging markets as China and India’s steel production and demand is expected to hit a record in 2012. China  is anticipated to produce an average 2 million tons of steel per day in 2012, while India is expected to grow steel consumption by 14 percent in 2011 and then 15 percent growth in 2012.


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